The concomitant risk is that inflation restarts

Friday, centers around the world have completed in dispersed order. The Dow Jones index, for example, found a decline of 0.40 while the Nasdaq enjoyed margins 0.47.

On the week, scores however emerged negative, more significantly in Europe and the United States. The CAC 40 (read also page 19) index thus abandoned 2.84 over the five sessions, against 3.15 per cent in the previous week. It is the Nasdaq deriving is best with a weekly increase of 0.59. After brilliant rally from March to may, investors across the month of June in a certain State of excitement. Any new economic recovery scenario questioning them hurts.

And, this week, the flow of statistics should not calm, even if US markets officiate only four sessions because of their national holiday, next Saturday. Tomorrow, the operators will discover the confidence index of the Conference Board, which is expected to increase by analysts. Will it validate the pattern printed by the University of Michigan, who recently showed a return of confidence of households

The same day, the Chicago PMI index will deliver the feeling of purchasing managers. Here also, specialists expect to a significant improvement. The ISM on the State of health of the manufacturing sector in the United States, which will be published the next day, is called to follow the movement. Yet to know if this will result in the employment figures, which claim the attention Thursday for creations and deletions of posts in the private sector, calculated by the Office of Council ADP and Friday with the monthly report.

At this point, opinion is divided. The unemployment rate could increase again up to 9.3. At the end of its monetary policy meeting, last Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve had adopted more optimistically than the previous time, indicating that "the pace of economic contraction slows" and that "conditions on the markets have generally improved in recent months."

Infusion of cash

Despite the rhetoric, the caution dominates. Investors wonder indeed how the authorities will manage the out of the crisis and the influx of liquidity injected on the market. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) just lent for an exceptional amount of 442 billion to banks in a 12-month refinancing operation.

At the end of this operation, excess liquidity in the market was estimated at 270 billion euros. Remains whether the institutions will open a little more valves of the credit to households as businesses.

The concomitant risk is that inflation restarts. If the Fed rejected it at its last meeting, even with the recent rising oil and raw material prices, the ECB maintained its vigilance. There is thus little chance that it descends interest rates below 1 percent at the end of its meeting next Thursday. It is likely that its President, Jean-Claude Trichet, said at the time that the level of rates is appropriate. In this context, the euro is stronger against the dollar, even ending at about 1.41 dollar Friday.

As, on the eve of the weekend, the status of international currency to the greenback has again been challenged, this time by the Chinese, who plead for the creation of a supranational currency.

Investors must also prepare for the opening next season the quarterly of the major sides groups and across the Atlantic. As usual, the Alcoa aluminium producer will open the ball on 7 July. The approach of this period, it is not uncommon that enterprises revise their forecasts, issue warnings on results and disrupt the deal markets.