For others nothing is possible before 2015

Ten years after the bombing of NATO against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, from March to June 1999, the time is not the war in the Western Balkans. The scenario disaster after the proclamation, on 17 February 2008, the independence of the Serbia of Kosovo, has not occurred.

Of course! But tensions are far from having disappeared in this area, which remains the most fragmented in Europe. And they can always escalate between communities and countries that have not closed the wounds of the Balkan wars. The relative calm cannot be illusion. It is always provided in large part by a large foreign presence, European more and more, and Bosnia and Herzegovina is still under international quasi-mandat. Because, unlike a false impression, the international community has not abandoned the region in its old demons.

It is same, as a diplomat, "an example of excellent cooperation between the European Union and the United States". US Vice President, Joe Biden, must also go, during the week of May 18, in Kosovo, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. A region where the United States always enjoy a great prestige. Paradoxically, the Europeans hope that Washington used the prestige, for having put an end to the war in Kosovo, to evolve the Balkans towards their integration to Europe.

The presence is also financial. Kosovo, whose independence was recognized by nearly a 60 States, has same fact its entry to the IMF, in spite of the opposition in Belgrade and Moscow. For its part, the European Union set its budget under real financial infusion. Bosnia concluded in may a credit agreement relay of 1.2 billion euros with the IMF.

But this aid cannot hide the fragility of the Western Balkans. Like the rest of the world, they have been hit hard by the economic crisis. In Kosovo, unemployment is even estimated at 45 of the active population. Foreign direct investment in the whole of the Balkan region should decrease by 45 this year.

On the ground, the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina tends to deteriorate, while secessionist threats of Republika Srpska (the Bosnian Serb Republic) are still pressing. In Kosovo, the integration of the Serb minority is not be performed. Largely because Belgrade is still doing its best to use the leverage of the Kosovo Serbs to undermine the independence of its former province.

The countries of the Balkans is not alone in issue. With tensions between Belgrade and Pristina, the Russia, which doesn't yet have a direct strategic interest in the former Yugoslavia in the difference of the former Soviet republics of Georgia or Ukraine, uses this situation to play his card to the West. In addition, border bilateral conflicts, on the question of the return of refugees, visas are legion. "It's good good-neighbourliness and cooperation" advocated by Europe, as recently noted by Pierre Mirel, responsible for relations with the Balkans to the European Commission.

Americans and Europeans agree nevertheless on one essential point: the definitive stabilization of the region through the prospect of accession of the Balkan countries a day in the European Union. But this market is now stopped. Europe in twenty-seven, after twelve countries in 2004 and 2007, feels "fatigue in its enlargements. Any new membership is now blocked without the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty, even if the European Union repeats that the countries of the Balkans have vocation to become members. A question of name, the Greece continues to oppose the March towards NATO and the European Union of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). Even if ultimately Athens and Skopje could if agree on the name of the country, presumably Northern Republic of Macedonia, the Greece always reluctant to give an agreement regarding the nomination of the language. On behalf of anticipation, the Slovenia prevents the entry into the Union of Croatia for a question of border and maritime access. As the Serbia, in addition to its refusal to recognize Kosovo, its status of candidate for the Union still depends on the arrest of Ratko Mladic and Goran Hadzic, the last two Serbs indicted for war crimes by the international criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, still on the run. At best, the accession of Croatia could be done in 2011 or 2012. For others, nothing is possible before 2015.

Unless Europe reclaims its "pump kick." Can doubt while faced with a crisis of unknown magnitude since 1945, the temptation to "withdrawal" is increasingly strong. Yet is bad time for Europe to take a "sabbatical" in the words of the Commissioner for enlargement, Olli Rehn.