The cost for public finances will be high

The car electric, much-admired in the world of the Automobile, raises at least two questions: what is the extent of subsidies needed Are these subsidies justified by the CO2 savings to it The information available is fragmented and incomplete, often tinged advertising or propaganda. Thus, for example, that all electric vehicles at the world displayed in large letters "zero CO2", thus hiding the fact that the production of the electricity used for the propulsion rejects sometimes lots of CO2.

The models on sale to compare the cost of an electric car and a classic car. Consider the costs of purchase and use of a small car through 10,000 miles per year for fifteen years. Classic car is a diesel car, for example a Clio Campus, cost 12,000 euros to purchase consuming 5 litres to 100 kilometres and implementation discarded at the end of the period. The electric car is a Renault sold 20,000 euros (under 5,000 euros grant), requiring the rental of a battery at a price of 100 euros per month. Calculate the amount present (at the rate of 4) expenditure of fuel, electricity and batteries made over 15 years. The cost is of 19,000 euros for the diesel vehicle, and 36,000 euros for the electric vehicle. The cost of the latter is therefore close to 17,000 euros. The grant of 5.000 euros reduced this cost to the consumer - but not for the community.

A sharp increase in oil calls into question this conclusion Non. An increase of 12 per year, which would bring the price of a barrel to $ 300 at our fifteen years, increases the cost (the sum of the costs of all these years) of the classic vehicle only 1,800 euros. The reason is that the cost of oil is less than 30 of the price at the pump (the rest is made up by taxes and transportation costs, refining and distribution). The cost of the electric car would then remain close to 15,000 euros. To eliminate it, should be an increase of a barrel of 33 per year, leading to a price of a barrel of 4.300 dollars, unlikely hypothesis.

In the current state of technology, the electric car thus implies a significant waste. The company could have the same service by spending 15.000 euros less per vehicle. Only to focus buyers a few individuals to show that they are very rich and very green. The electric car will sell if subsidies from the State or local offset this increased cost. The purchase by public authorities or of dependent enterprises in the State (such as post) is a form of subsidy. The cost for public finances will be high. If 10 of cars registered in France next year were electric, it would cost EUR 4 billion to the taxpayer (including 600 millions of TIPP lost).

Are these public expenditures justified by the reduction of CO2 emissions that they generate Non. The diesel car emits annually 1.3 per tonne of CO2 equivalent, much less than a cow (2.4 tons). Releases related to the production of the electricity consumed by electric cars vary greatly depending on the time of the recharge and the origin of electricity. In China, where it is produced with coal and a content of less than 800 g/kWh CO2, electric vehicle disagrees 1.8 tonne per year - much more than our classic car. The France, with nuclear power, is fortunately better placed. If the refills were between midnight and 6 a.m., with of mainly nuclear electricity, and therefore CO2 content near zero, releases would be almost zero. But if refills are in the day, the parking lot of the offices for example, during peak periods, with electricity produced by burning gas or, worse, with imported electricity from Germany, they involve comparable Chinese digit releases. With an average content of 100 g/kWh, that many will find underestimated, releases are more than 200 kg per year. The reduction of CO2 generated by an electric car would then 1.1 tonne per year, of 16 tons over fifteen years. At a cost greater than 15,000 euros, this puts per ton of CO2 saved more than 900 euros. It is well beyond the 40 or 50 euros per tonne, expected to be sufficient to reduce releases of the country to the desired level.

To date, the electric car appears justified economically or environmentally. It is a concession to the ambient ideology. At best, an industrial bet. Of course, suggests that production costs, including batteries, will fall under the dual effect of economies of scale and progress of the technology. That he will come a time where electric vehicles will no longer need subsidies and spread around the world. Countries (or companies) that have, with the money, developed this new technology, then enjoy a significant competitive advantage. Today grants therefore start the pump of the profits of tomorrow. This scenario is not absurd. But it is not very convincing. The electric car remains a costly gamble. That may very well be lost.