Some such as California are incompetent

"A central issue for the coming year will be to see if the GDP growth accelerating enough to lead to employment growth, creating then two virtuous circles further that the increase in spending and increase revenues", indicated Friday Larry Summers, the Economic Adviser to the President before a room fills at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

More than 6.5 million jobs have been removed since the beginning of the crisis, bringing the unemployment rate to 9.5. The Federal Reserve is now expected that it exceeds the 10 at the beginning of next year, and the more pessimistic forecasters now speak of unemployment 11.5. Some States such as Alabama and the Georgia, have already reached the threshold of 10.

According to the Adviser to the President, job losses, which are more important that the Government does had first considered it, are not only due to a contraction of GDP but also a brutal decision of investment, as well as an unexpected increase in productivity. "The unemployment rate has increased from 1 to 1.5 more than if he had usually depended of the contraction of GDP", he noted.

Larry Summers explained that only 10 of the stimulus package (the "Recovery Act" of $ 787 billion) would have an impact on employment in 2009 and that the bulk of the effect was expected for the end of 2010. Households that already have benefited from a $ 43 billion in tax relief, and $ 64 billion were irrigated local governments. Some, such as California, are incompetent.

A historic recovery plan

One hundred and twenty negliGent billion are to be injected into the economy. "Since the month of may, disposable income was enhanced by 2 ", said Larry Summers. This recovery plan is the most important in the history of the United States, and its cost represents 5 of GDP.

Highlighting how path had been travelled since the beginning of the year, when it was feared a depression, he found that a return to growth was possible in the second half. Several indices are in this sense.

The first results of the companies in the second quarter are rather positive. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase reported record results, IBM, Intel, or same Alcoa have all indicated that they saw signs of improvement in the coming weeks. Since the publication of the "tests of strength" banks, these dernières were able to issue 80 billion of securities and raise 30 billion of unsecured debt. Similarly, municipalities may again issue bonds. The third building of new homes, published Friday, were again surprised and are high up: 582.000 rhythm annualized in June, leaving hope that the housing market is finally clean.

Economist Nouriel Roubini said last Thursday that the United States will emerge from recession at the end of the year, but he nevertheless argues for a new recovery plan in the amount of $ 250 billion to accelerate recovery. Signs of weaknesses are many as it showed the fall of profits from General Electric, for example. And are expected, one day to another, in the bankruptcy of CIT financial services company, specializing in SMEs.